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Tropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-11-04 09:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 539 WTNT42 KNHC 040848 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 This morning's METSAT-10 satellite imagery presentation consists of a fragmented curved band with -30C to -40C cloud tops displaced to the east of the exposed elongated surface center. A blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective and UW-CIMSS objective technique satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Although Patty's cloud pattern is typical of a sheared tropical cyclone, the FSU cyclone phase diagram based on the GFS and ECMWF models indicates an asymmetric deep cold core thermal structure. Despite the sub-23C oceanic sea surface temperatures, the very cold upper-tropospheric temperatures are more than likely supporting sufficient thermodynamic instability to produce the remaining convection associated with the cyclone. The vertical tilt with height is becoming more pronounced due to the strong westerly shear and Patty should spin down while losing what remains of the convection and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The global models agree with Patty opening up into a trough by the 36 hr period and the official forecast follows suit. Patty's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 070/17 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected today and this motion should continue until it dissipates on Tuesday. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids. Key messages: 1. Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-11-04 09:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040848 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) 1(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 2(41) 1(42) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) 2(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 3(43) X(43) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) X(44) 1(45) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 27(77) X(77) 1(78) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) 1(43) X(43) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 27(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 23(23) 24(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) MONTEGO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-11-04 09:48:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040848 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics