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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-26 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262046 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 The center of Rachel appears to be reforming a little closer to the deep convection, and in fact looks somewhat elongated on the latest visible imagery. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS satellite analyses still show about 10 kt of shear affecting the cyclone, and overall there has been little net change to the cloud pattern today. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over the next 24 hours, which should allow for some gradual strengthening, but the SHIPS intensity forecast has trended downward this cycle along with the GFDL. After 36 hours, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable environment over marginal SSTs and decay to a remnant low is expected in 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast has been adjusted downward a little in the short range toward the latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to IVCN after that time. Given the reformation of the center, the initial position is southwest of the previous advisory. Smoothing through this short- term motion yields a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 295/10. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not changed. Rachel is forecast to turn gradually northward into a break in the subtropical ridge with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the decaying cyclone is forecast to move little in a region of weak steering currents, with a slow southwestward motion possible by the end of the period. There continues to be a large spread in the track guidance after 36 hours, with the GFS and GFDL taking the cyclone farther north while the UKMET and ECMWF show a more westward to southwestward motion. The new NHC forecast track is generally between the two camps and is a little left of the TVCE multi-model consensus and not far from the HWRF. This track is west of the previous NHC advisory due to the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 18.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 20.6N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 21.3N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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