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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-27 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271434 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 Rachel continues to exhibit an occasional eye-like feature in infrared satellite imagery, and this was also seen in an AMSR2 pass just after 0900 UTC. However, the overall convective pattern is not terribly impressive, with only a small area of deep convection near the center and little in the way of banding. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. With the inner core trying to organize, there is the potential for Rachel to reach hurricane intensity during in the next 12 to 18 hours before the thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile. After that time, Rachel will be moving over marginal SSTs and into an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere, which should result in steady weakening. The new NHC forecast shows Rachel peaking in 12 hours, and after that time is close to the IVCN intensity consensus while the cyclone decays. The initial motion estimate is 325/07. Rachel should continue turning poleward while it moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the decaying cyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and a slow north-northwestward motion is shown at 36 to 48 hours. Later in the period, the shallow cyclone should begin moving southwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The track model guidance still shows a fair amount of spread, but the GFS and GFDL models have continued to trend southward this cycle. As a result, the TVCE multi-model consensus has shifted to the left, and the latest NHC track has been adjusted in that direction at 36 to 48 hours. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory when accounting for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.6N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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