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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-09-29 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292036 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 Rachel continues to slowly weaken. Visible satellite imagery shows its exposed low-level center located on the south side of a small patch of deep convection, with the remnant mid-level circulation displaced well to the northeast. The cyclone's current ragged structure is partly a result of persistent south-southwesterly shear of around 25 kt as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS analyses. A 1715 UTC AMSU microwave pass also suggested that dry and stable air has been wrapping around the circulation of the storm. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 45 kt based on peak winds of 43 kt from a 1714 UTC ASCAT-B pass. With strong southwesterly shear expected to continue and thermodynamic conditions likely to become even more unfavorable, further steady weakening is expected. These hostile environmental factors should cause Rachel to weaken to a remnant low in about 24 hours and dissipate in 2-3 days, as shown in global model guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast represents an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been drifting steadily northward, and the initial motion estimate is 360/02. In the next 12 hours or so, a slow northward motion is likely to continue, so long as the cyclone maintains enough vertical integrity. After that time, Rachel should transition into a shallower vortex and be carried generally west-southwestward with a modest increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit to the right and is somewhat south and west of the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus model, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 23.0N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.1N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 23.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 22.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 22.6N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky
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