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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-25 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250831 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 Microwave data reveal that Rachel is still a sheared cyclone with the center located to the northeast of the deep convection due to strong upper-level northeasterly winds. The cloud pattern has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT from CIMMS support an initial intensity of 35 kt. There is an opportunity for Rachel to strengthen a little during the next 2 to 3 days as the shear decreases. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase again, and the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. Microwave and conventional satellite fixes indicate that Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The ridge over Mexico which is controlling the track of Rachel is forecast to weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough approaches. This steering pattern should favor a turn to the northwest and north beyond 48 hours. In fact, track models are in better agreement and now most of them favor a northward turn and a recurvature with a decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. By then, Rachel is expected to be a weakening depression or a remnant low. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through 3 days. After that time, it was adjusted eastward a little bit to follow the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.0N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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