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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-09-28 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 The last bit of deep convection dissipated just after the release of the previous advisory, and all that is left is some shower activity displaced well to the northeast of Roslyn's center due to 30-35 kt of southwesterly shear. Recent ASCAT data indicate that the system is still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the southeastern quadrant, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Continued strong shear and cooler waters should cause the cyclone to gradually spin down during the next couple of days. Since it is unlikely that Roslyn will be able to reproduce organized deep convection, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today. The global models all suggest that the remnant low will dissipate by day 3, if not sooner. The initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/8 kt. Roslyn is expected to turn northward later today as it moves around a deep-layer trough extending southwestward from southern California. The shallow, convection-less remnant low should then turn northwestward and west-northwestward by 48 hours, steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. The new official track closely follows the TVCN multi-model consensus, which required an eastward shift from the previous track, primarily during the first 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.2N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 21.2N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 22.2N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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