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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-27 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Roslyn continues to be affected by strong southwesterly shear, with the center of the tropical cyclone exposed to the southwest of the associated deep convection. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory, which is an average of Dvorak estimates of 45 kt and 35 kt, from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Roslyn should slowly weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear, gradually decreasing SSTs, and dry mid-level air that is wrapping around the western portion of the circulation. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and calls for Roslyn to become a remnant low in 36 hours, and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Roslyn is moving northeastward or 045/7 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn northward by tonight around the eastern portion of a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from a large cut-off low over northwestern Mexico. By late Wednesday, a weaker and more vertically shallow Roslyn is expected to turn northwestward. There is more spread in the track models this morning, but little change was required to the NHC forecast which is located near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.3N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 22.6N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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