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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 5
2024-11-04 21:59:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042058 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 76.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required tonight or early tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-11-04 21:55:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042054 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Deep convection continues to burst near the center of the system, with improving overall structure and curved banding depicted in recent satellite images. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data has found flight level winds around 40-45 kt with higher SFMR values. The Hurricane Hunters also indicated that an eyewall appears to be developing. Based on the aircraft data, the intensity is being increased to 40 kt. The system is now designated as Tropical Storm Rafael, and is the seventeenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of lower confidence. Given the improving overall structure with an inner core developing, combined with favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs all support intensification. Models all support steady to rapid intensification, and SHIPS RI probabilities indicate a near 40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast and peak intensity has been increased and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope through the middle part of the forecast period. Based on the SHIPS RI guidance, future upward intensity adjustments during the first 48 h may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. In a few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening, and the NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and Tuesday. 2. Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday where there is an increasing risk of a dangerous storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 5. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-11-04 21:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042054 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) 1(59) 1(60) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 1(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) 1(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 22(43) 2(45) 1(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 50(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 27(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 12(12) 49(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 29 57(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGSTON 34 65 12(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) KINGSTON 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics