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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-10-06 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of the remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north of the low-level center. Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt. The vertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is forecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days. Given the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening is expected. The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant low in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than that. The motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt. Simon is moving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level anticyclone. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the cyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving across the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme northwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over the next couple of days. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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