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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-10-07 04:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070243 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 The cloud pattern of Simon has changed little since the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone continues to produce a small area of deep convection well to the north of the exposed low-level center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to slowly decrease and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Westerly shear of 30 kt or more, along with cool water, and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause the tropical storm to weaken during the next day or so. Simon is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday and dissipate within 2 to 3 days. The latest satellite fixes indicate that Simon has turned north-northeastward or 015/7 kt. Simon should move north- northeastward to northeastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to its southeast and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast lies between the ECMWF and the more poleward GFS. The new track is close to the previous advisory through 24 hours, but has been adjusted a little northward thereafter. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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