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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-10-07 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 The deep convection associated with Simon has diminished even further, with only a small patch of showers remaining near the north-central Baja California peninsula. Unless significant convection returns to the circulation later today, the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The intensity is maintained at 35 kt for now, based mainly on continuity from the earlier ASCAT pass. The surface circulation of Simon or its remnant low is likely to dissipate while it moves into the southwestern United States, unless it fails to survive its passage over the mountainous Baja peninsula during the next day or so. The motion is just slightly faster than before, or 025/8 kt. With the cyclone expected to remain embedded in low- to mid-level south-southwesterly flow, this motion should continue until the system loses its identity. The official forecast is close to TVCN, the dynamical model consensus. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 27.7N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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