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Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 8A
2024-11-15 18:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras. * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Sara is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-11-15 16:26:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 151526 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 86.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-15 15:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 14:53:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 14:53:05 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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