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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 47
2018-10-11 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110239 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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