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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 50
2018-10-11 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this track is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but Sergio is over cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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