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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-18 04:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better organized with very deep convection near the center and significant bands in the southern semicircle. Microwave satellite data and radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence of some inner-core features forming. Dvorak intensity estimates are increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB. Although the environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone doesn't have much time before it makes landfall. Thus, the official forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt, which lies on the higher side of the consensus. Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt. Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward until landfall within 24 hours. Guidance has trended a little slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend. Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours. The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.5N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 17.0N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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