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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-18 11:08:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180908 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing, and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor continued intensification. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the cyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current intensification phase. Given the current trend, the NHC intensity forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated. Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward, with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours. Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna de Chacahua. It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.4N 98.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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