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Tropical Storm TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-18 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181451 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around 1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern portion of the circulation. Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little motion. Since Trudy is already inland over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.2N 98.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 17.5N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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