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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-28 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282031 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 Ulika's cloud pattern consists of a small area of deep convection near the estimated center, with limited or no banding features. The current intensity estimate has been reduced to 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear, mainly due to westerly upper-level flow associated with a broad trough over the east-central Pacific, is predicted by the global models to increase substantially over the next couple of days. This, along with dry mid-tropospheric air, should cause steady weakening and Ulika is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours or less. Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 010/6. As long as it maintains some vertical depth, the small circulation of the tropical cyclone should continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level low to its west. Assuming that the system becomes a shallow cyclone in 36 to 48 hours, it should move generally westward in the low-level flow by that time. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.1N 138.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.6N 141.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 17.7N 144.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
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