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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-09-29 10:51:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290851 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 Despite about 25 kt of west-southwesterly shear, a burst of deep convection which developed around 0100 UTC has persisted, and Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB increased to T3.5/55 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. Based on these numbers, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Vertical shear is expected to turn westerly and increase to between 30 and 50 kt during the next couple of days. Given Ulika's small size, it will be no match for this type of shear and should therefore weaken very quickly. The NHC intensity forecast decays the system very similarly to what is shown by the LGEM model. Based on the latest global model fields, Ulika is likely to dissipate by day 3, if not sooner. Ulika has turned north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt, around the eastern side of a mid-level low located near 19N144W. The cyclone is expected to continue turning counterclockwise around this feature today and tonight, and it should then be moving westward by Friday when it is steered by lower-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little west and south of the previous forecast, but that is primarily due to an adjustment of the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.7N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.4N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.6N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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