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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-11-01 15:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014 The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly. The first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data suggesting the development of a more solid inner core. A blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Vance has ample opportunity to strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm waters with low shear conditions. Little change is made to the forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than the model consensus. Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone approaches Mexico. Guidance has trended sharply downward at days 3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. Vance is moving about 280/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to move much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days 3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution, with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no changes were made to the official NHC forecast. While the latest NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling from the mid-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 9.6N 103.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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