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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-11-04 21:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042041 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 The organization of Vance has decreased significantly over the past several hours due to the effects of 50-60 kt of vertical wind shear. The low-level center is now exposed to the southwest of the main convective mass, and the convection has decreased in both coverage and intensity. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and this again could be a little generous. The initial motion is 030/12. The guidance has trended eastward and faster since the last advisory, and the dynamical models now forecast the cyclone to make landfall over mainland Mexico in 18-24 hours. The new forecast track lies a little to the east of the previous track, but is west of, and slower than, the consensus models. Continuing strong shear should cause additional rapid weakening. The majority of the guidance forecasts Vance to weaken below tropical-storm strength before landfall, and the new intensity forecast follows that scenario. However, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm watch for portions of the coast of Mexico. After landfall, Vance is expected to dissipate over the mountains of northwestern Mexico. Moisture from Vance and its remnants is spreading northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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