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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-30 21:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302034 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 Visible satellite images show that the center of the cyclone remains near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Still, the convective organization has improved from a few hours ago, with a distinct band on the northeast side of the system. Dvorak estimates and scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in the basin since 1992. The scatterometer data suggests that Vance is now moving about 260/4. A southwestward motion is expected tomorrow as a ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The storm should turn westward and west-northwestward by 72 hours while it moves across the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Vance will likely turn northward or north-northeastward at long range ahead of a mid-latitude trough diving over Baja California into the eastern Pacific. While there is broad agreement on the general synoptic pattern, the models have a stronger ridge than the last cycle, leading to the storm moving farther to the west and south. This shift in the steering has led to a slower solution at long range by almost every reliable model. The official NHC prediction is shifted westward and southward throughout the forecast period, and further adjustments could be required on the next advisory if model trends continue. Although Vance is expected to remain over warm water for the next several days, it is currently struggling with dry air entrainment and southwesterly shear. Most of the models respond to this environment by showing little significant intensity change during the next 24 hours, so the official forecast will follow suit. After that time, the global models continue to show reduced shear, with an increase in low- to mid-level moisture. These conditions should allow for Vance to become a hurricane in a few days, although guidance is not in particularly good agreement on this scenario. At long range, there is high uncertainty in the intensity forecast, with the models generally showing more shear than the last cycle. Thus the intensity prediction is lowered some from the previous NHC forecast, although it remains on the higher side of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.0N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 9.9N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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