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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-05-09 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090857 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Satellite images and scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the low pressure area southwest of Mexico that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has acquired sufficient organized deep convection and has developed a well-defined inner-core wind field for the system to be designated as the first tropical depression of the 2021 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season... albeit six days early. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 30-kt surface winds noted in 0359 UTC and 0453 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C, respectively, scatterometer satellite data. There were some 35-kt wind vectors present east of the center, but those appeared to be rain-contaminated at that time. The 30-kt initial intensity is also supported by a 0600 UTC TAFB satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt using a curved-band feature. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. For the next day or two, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak subtropical ridge that extends westward from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico across central Mexico to just north of the system. The ridge is expected to build steadily westward over the next few days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward on Tuesday and then moving west-southwestward on Wednesday and Thursday. The HHC track forecast follows the overall trend of the consensus models TVCE and HCCA, but lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in anticipation of the system weakening and becoming a shallow cyclone by early Tuesday, after which it should be steered more by the low-level easterly to northeasterly trade-wind flow Recent satellite trends suggest that the depression currently is not far from tropical storm status, and SHIPS intensity data indicate that the deep-layer shear is favorable for some additional strengthening. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS reveal that moderate southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear is currently displacing the convection to the northeast and east of the low-level center, and this unfavorable pattern is expected to hinder overall development. As a result, the cyclone is only forecast to become a low-end tropical storm before significant deep-layer shear begins to adversely affect the system by late Monday. During the period Tuesday through Thursday, very hostile wind shear in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures cooling to near 26-deg C beneath the cyclone should result in the system degenerating into a remnant low, with dissipation expected by early Friday, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows those models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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NCBA welcomes discussion on Cattle Market Transparency Act
2021-03-03 01:30:00| Beef
A library of cattle formula contracts would be established by the USDA.
Tags: market
discussion
act
cattle
Farmers need education, seat at table in climate discussion
2021-02-26 20:03:00| National Hog Farmer
House Ag Committee begins deeper conversation of role farmers play in mitigating climate change.
Tags: education
table
discussion
seat
Experts in Discussion: The need for telco transformation and tech innovation
2020-12-02 01:00:00| Total Telecom industry news
The telecoms landscape is changing rapidly, with a host of emerging technologies set to drastically reshape existing business strategies. From the rapid deployment of 5G to the diverse industrial implications of IoT, edge computing, and AI-integration, the telco space is becoming broader than ever, offering a world of new opportunities waiting to be seized. But navigating this new world will not be easy for telcos…read more on TotalTele.com »
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192032 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent, organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25 kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease, and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36 hours, per the latest global model guidance. Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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