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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-07 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071433 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength. Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical storm later today. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days. This steering pattern should keep the system on a general west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge, which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the various consensus models. The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 21.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 14:23:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071223 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west. and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 13:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 480 WTNT43 KNHC 071156 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 369 WTNT43 KNHC 070852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Julio Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-07 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070839 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Julio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 Moderate easterly shear has continued to take a toll on the compact tropical cyclone. In fact, recent satellite imagery and ASCAT data indicate that the small circulation has opened up into a trough of low pressure. Therefore, Julio has dissipated and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Julios demise occurred much quicker than forecast, owing to the difficulty in predicting the intensity (both up and down) of small tropical cyclones. The remnants are moving westward around the northern portion of a broad area of low pressure to the southwest of Socorro Island, and the remnants should be absorbed within that system later today. The global models indicate that moderate to strong easterly shear will persist over the larger low pressure area in which Julio is being absorbed, and this will likely prevent significant development of that system over the next few days. This is last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.5N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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