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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-06 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in the guidance. The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-06 04:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060251 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west- northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of resolving Julio. The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-05 22:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 808 WTNT45 KNHC 052031 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression, but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center. The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition. Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 40.2N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 43.3N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-05 10:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050834 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection that are being sheared to the south of the center of circulation. However, these busts are near enough to the center for the system to still qualify as a tropical cyclone. Since Omar is now finally beginning to head for cooler waters, convection will likely decrease and Omar should become a remnant low within 24 hours. As expected, the cyclone is now moving north-northeastward, or 020/6 kt. A continued generally north-northeast track with acceleration is likely, under the influence of an approaching large mid-level trough. The official track forecast is similar to the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 36.2N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 37.6N 56.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 40.1N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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