Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-09-05 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical depression despite ongoing strong shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. A combination of continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night or Sunday. Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the initial motion is now 070/4. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 35.6N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-09-04 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center, enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night. The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north- northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.3N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-09-04 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did, Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable 25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis. Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause Omar to dissipate by early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-04 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly shear. Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation. The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer measurements. If the lack of convection continues, Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. In any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough within a couple of days. After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt. The system should turn toward the northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough within 36-48 hours. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.3N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Remnants of Nana Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-04 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040240 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Nana Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite and surface data indicate that Nana's low-level circulation has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Guatemala. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The mid-level remnants are expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later tonight or early Friday. The global models indicate that strong upper-level northeasterly flow will prevent re-development over the next couple of days. However, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southeastern and southern coasts of Mexico over the weekend. Additional information on the remnants on Nana can be found in the eastern Pacific basin Tropical Weather Outlook. This product can be found under AWIPS header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC, and on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/ FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.6N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast nana

 

Sites : [214] [215] [216] [217] [218] [219] [220] [221] [222] [223] [224] [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] next »