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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-09-17 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 810 WTNT45 KNHC 172036 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Depression Joyce has proven to be resilient. Visible satellite imagery over the eastern Atlantic today showed a fairly prolonged burst of deep convection near and just east of the center. In the grand scheme of things, the circulation of Joyce is still relatively dry and free of thunderstorms, but this batch of convection causes us to maintain a 30-knot intensity at advisory time. Joyce had turned decidedly to the southeast since 15Z, and this fits in with the model guidance - all of which showed a very strong track consensus that curves the system down away from the westerlies, with the track eventually turning toward the southwest, suppressed by a developing flat ridge around 35 degrees north. Over time, this track will put Joyce in an environment characterized by less shear, but also marginal sea surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air. This should cause deep convection to diminish, and gradually reduce Joyce's winds and structure to a post-tropical low - noting that all the global models lose definition on this system just after 72 hours. The lastest official track is near the consensus of the tightly clustered guidance, and represents no significant change since the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 33.7N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-17 16:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 633 WTNT45 KNHC 171435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining into the circulation. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a little faster than the previous advisory. The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to the previous official forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 34.0N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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China Regs, Recycling Issues Dominate Discussion During CRC Event
2018-09-17 16:11:00| Waste Age
Waste360 and Waste Dive discuss China, glass recycling issues and other challenges in the waste and recycling industry during the Connecticut Recyclers Coalition annual meeting.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-17 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 261 WTNT45 KNHC 170834 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HWRF model guidance. The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and not too different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-17 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 919 WTNT45 KNHC 170240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very strong westerly vertical wind shear. The system still displays cold cloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least 100 nm from the center. The shear is being induced primarily by 50-kt 200 mb winds. Usually such strong vertical shear would completely decapitate a tropical cyclone. However, systems in higher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear vector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental effects of the shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce will soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters, and dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening, nearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models. Joyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip. The system has not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is expected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores high. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the southeast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the southwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker eastward initial motion than previously observed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 34.0N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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