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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-24 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 440 WTNT42 KNHC 240239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical depression for now. The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean. The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global and regional dynamical model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 9.4N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 9.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 10.0N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 10.3N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 10.6N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 11.7N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 14.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-23 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 838 WTNT43 KNHC 232036 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity is then kept at 35 kt. The evolution of Leslie is very complex and difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in intensity or structure is anticipated until then. Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 33.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-23 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 217 WTNT42 KNHC 232032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Deep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk, and the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the northwestern and western peripheries of the circulation. This has the appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level air has been entrained into the tropical cyclone. Since the system should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into early this weak. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause weakening. The official forecast is close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the previous NHC forecast. Based on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly toward the west, or about 280/20 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at a fairly fast clip for the next couple of days. By days 3-4, the ridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion somewhat. The official track forecast has not changed much from the previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-23 16:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 251 WTNT43 KNHC 231432 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global models have been advertising for the past several days has materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie have been initiated. Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low. This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time. Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely move east until it becomes absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Remnants of Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-23 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 731 WTNT41 KNHC 231431 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Visible images show that the depression has degenerated into a trough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. This disturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile shear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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