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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-09-22 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 562 WTNT41 KNHC 220249 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 The small, but well-defined, low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has been producing steady convection for the past several hours. Although this convection is displaced to the south and east of the exposed low-level center due to strong westerly wind shear, it has persisted long enough to meet the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone. On this basis, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today which showed a couple of 25-30 kt wind vectors in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The intensity guidance is in extremely good agreement that the depression is unlikely to strengthen. All of the global models forecast an increase in upper-level winds over the small cyclone during the next 24 h. In fact, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the 850-200 mb shear could exceed 30 kt by tomorrow morning, and will be near 40 kt within 48 h. As a result of this shear and some dry air also in the vicinity, the dynamical models unanimously forecast dissipation within 72 h, and most show that the depression will open into a trough of low pressure sooner than that. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains the tropical cyclone for 48 h, but it could weaken and dissipate sooner than currently indicated. The depression has recently been moving almost due west, but a longer-term motion yields an initial motion of 290/5 kt. A break in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should result in fairly weak steering flow for the next day or two, and only a slow west-northwestward to westward motion is anticipated. All of the typically-reliable track models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The NHC forecast is very close to HCCA at all forecast hours, and lies near the south edge of the tight guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.1N 53.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.5N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.8N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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RSC discussion matrix w/responses from Commissioner Eudaly's office

2018-09-22 00:38:17| PortlandOnline

PDF Document, 529kbCategory: September 28, 2018

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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-09-20 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 126 WTPZ44 KNHC 200832 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of California. The associated deep convection has taken on a more linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed surface circulation over the rough terrain. As such, the depression is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this system. Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish during the next 6-12 hours. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next couple of days. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains will also lead to a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. For information on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult statements from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-09-20 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 507 WTPZ44 KNHC 200240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas. However, much of the associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to on Thursday. The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-09-19 22:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 699 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops, and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30 kt based on this information. The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory. The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. This will not afford much time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of the Sierra-Madre Occidental. The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake

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