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Remnants of Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-08-10 16:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101436 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Franklin Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Surface synoptic data and visible satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of Franklin has dissipated over south-central Mexico, not far from Mexico City. The remnants are moving westward, or about 260/17 kt. A strong mid- to upper-level high pressure system should continue to steer the remnants of Franklin generally westward across Mexico today and tonight. Since the mid-level remnants of Franklin are likely to survive while moving into the east Pacific by Friday morning, the system will be monitored for signs of development in that basin. This is the last advisory on Franklin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.7N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF FRANKLIN 12H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-08-10 10:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100846 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 The center of Franklin made landfall on the coast of eastern Mexico near 0500 UTC with maximum sustained winds near 75 kt based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data. The cyclone is now weakening over land, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 60 kt. Rapid weakening is expected as the low-level center moves into the mountains of Mexico over the next few hours, with the low-level circulation expected to dissipate within 24 h. The mid-level remnants of Franklin should reach the eastern Pacific in 24-36 h, and re-development is possible at that time. The initial motion is 260/13. A strong mid- to upper-level high pressure system should steer Franklin or its remnants generally westward across Mexico and over the Pacific during the next day or so. Franklin will continue to bring torrential rains with flash flooding and mud slides along its path, and these conditions could persist even after the low-level center dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.9N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 19.6N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 14

2017-08-10 04:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100246 TCDAT2 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Satellite images show some increase in organization of the cloud pattern with very deep convection near the center and outflow in all quadrants, suggesting that the cyclone is strengthening. An eye has not been depicted in conventional imagery, but it was noted in earlier microwave data. Intensification was confirmed by an Air Force plane which reported an earlier peak of 89 kt at flight level and a recent peak of 80 kt measured by the SFMR. The flight level winds were lower in the most recent leg. The minimum pressure was near 981 mb near 0000 UTC, but then rose to 985 mb by 0200 UTC. Based on reports from the plane, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. There is an opportunity for Franklin to pick up a little more strength or fluctuate in intensity before landfall tonight or early Thursday. Once the hurricane moves inland over the high terrain, rapid weakening should begin. Regardless of weakening, the cyclone will likely bring torrential rains with flash flooding and mud slides along its path. Franklin is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is trapped within the easterly flow around a strong high pressure system over Mexico and the southwestern United States. This pattern will force Franklin to move on the same general westward track toward the coast of Mexico and then inland until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.2N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-08-09 22:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092041 TCDAT2 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated that Franklin was very close to hurricane strength. Since the time of the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a faint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite images. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making Franklin the first hurricane of the season. There is some northerly shear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident over the outer circulation's northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry air is nearby. These environmental conditions are not expected to be detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional strengthening before landfall tonight. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours from now to check the strength of the cyclone. The hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion estimated to be 270/10. There are essentially no changes to the track forecast or reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a mid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue to steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.1N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 19.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-08-09 16:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing inner-core convection and banding features. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, which presages intensification. Radar observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse SSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly impeding strengthening. However, the only evidence of this shear at this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional strengthening is forecast up to landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or 270/11 kt. A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of Franklin should maintain the generally westward track until landfall in eastern Mexico. A slightly more southward motion could occur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with the topography of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.2N 93.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.1N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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