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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-08-01 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Irwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the eastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters. Intensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt. This burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all remaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters. The cyclone is expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last advisory, following the model consensus. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted to turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow. There is no significant change to the guidance, and the official forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-31 22:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312043 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Emily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection noted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well removed from the center and lies across southern Florida and the Keys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased to less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, resulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the depression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then accelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and frontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There is high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the southeastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the Atlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Some additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from the north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin while the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to cap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a frontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. The primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 27.8N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/0600Z 28.4N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/1800Z 29.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 35.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 38.1N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-07-31 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 312033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The deep convection associated with Irwin has been decreasing throughout the day, and it is currently limited to a fairly small area near and to the east of the center. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and an average of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Satellite data show that dry and stable air is wrapping into the circulation. This stable air mass combined with cool SSTs should lead to additional weakening, and Irwin will likely become a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday. The remnant low is expected to continue to spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the guidance. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following the path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day. Thereafter, a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn to the northwest is predicted as the shallow remnant low moves in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 24.2N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.4N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 28.5N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Emily Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-31 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311436 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 There has been little change in Emily's overall structure as seen in satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have remained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay WSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of 50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the circulation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few hours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still supports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days 2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to 10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt, which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. The initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the TVCN consensus model. The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will be possible across central and southern Florida today, along with isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 27.6N 82.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-07-31 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 311433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Although the structure of Irwin remains well organized, deep convection has been on the decline during the past several hours due to the influences of cool, 24 deg C water and dry air. An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little to 45 kt. The intensity forecast is straightforward. Continued steady weakening is expected due to even cooler waters, and drier and more stable air along the path of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Irwin to degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipate by 72 hours. This forecast is an update of the previous one. Irwin is moving north-northwestward at 12 kt in the wake of Post-Tropical cyclone Hilary, and this motion is expected to continue for about another day. Thereafter, a slower motion toward the northwest is forecast when the shallow remnant low is steered by low-level southeasterly flow. The models remain tightly clustered and have changed little this cycle, so only minor adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 21.9N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.6N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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