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End of comment period for Map Refinement Project Discussion Draft
2017-08-04 18:54:15| PortlandOnline
Feedback from the public will be considered by staff as they prepare a Proposed Draft for consideration by the PSC.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-04 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041443 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017 First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center. Deep convection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western portion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus 1.5. Based on these factors, the system has been classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not expected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the system weak. In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests that the system will ever become a tropical storm. The intensity forecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system becomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent shear and a drier environment. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the center has only recently become well defined. Since the cyclone is forecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low- to mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the depression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow down substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track forecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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depression
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-02 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020232 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 The center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite images showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any distant convection. The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any organized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs that quickly fade out due to dry air and shear. In addition, the cyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows Emily with a warm core. Given these considerations, Emily has lost the requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being declared post-tropical. Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily. The cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should resume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the initial position only, with the models in good agreement on the general northeast course. Emily should gradually weaken due to increasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical characteristics on Wednesday. Dissipation of the low is forecast within 3 days as it opens up into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 30.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 02/1200Z 32.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1200Z 35.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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emily
Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 42
2017-08-01 22:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 012038 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. On this basis, the system has been declared a remnant low in this advisory. Data from a recent ASCAT indicate that wind are still 30 kt to the north and east of the center. The low is forecast to move toward the northwest about 7 kt toward cooler waters until dissipation is a day or so. This will be the last advisory issued by NHC on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 26.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z 28.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 29.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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irwin
Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-01 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Deep convection has redeveloped and persisted near and over Emily's low-level center since the previous advisory, with some weak banding features having developed in the eastern semicircle. Cirrus outflow has also pushed back westward over the center, an indication that the convection is feeding back into Emily's circulation. An ASCAT pass around 1435Z revealed a closed circulation and surface winds of 30-31 kt just east of the center. Also, nearby buoy 41010 has been reporting 27-kt winds at a 4-meter elevation for the past several hours. Based on those wind data, the initial intensity has been nudged upward to 30 kt. Emily is moving 050/13 kt. The depression remains embedded in modest southwesterly flow ahead of deep-layer trough and frontal system along the U.S. east coast, and a general northeastward motion away from the United States is forecast for the next several days. The NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data also indicated that Emily is embedded within a pre-frontal trough, and surface and upper-air data further indicate that a weak cold front lies within 60 nmi north and west of the depression. Given the proximity of the front and the fact the system is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough, Emily could transition to an extratropical low within the next 12-24h or even open up into an elongated surface trough. Owing to this possible weak baroclinic interaction, little change in strength is expected during the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 30.3N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/1800Z 33.1N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/0600Z 34.6N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1800Z 35.9N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 37.8N 61.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z 39.3N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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depression
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