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Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-20 10:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 08:57:03 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-20 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Beta was located near 27.0, -92.7 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-20 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 92.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch between Baffin Bay and Port Aransas, Texas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch south of Port Mansfield, Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, followed by a slow down and a turn to the north and northeast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Port Aransas, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake... 2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-20 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-20 10:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200851 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm remains strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and northeast of the low-level center. A combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but it now seems to be moving. The current initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward later today. This motion should continue for a couple of days, taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night. After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This change in the pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is fairly similar to the previous prediction. The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially on the west side of the circulation. Since the shear is not expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected through landfall in 36 to 48 hours. After Beta moves inland, steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast later today and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 27.0N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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