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Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-19 23:02:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 21:02:04 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-19 23:02:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 21:02:04 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192100 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Beta has a small area of convection over the low-level center, with a dry slot on the northeastern side separating that convection from a larger outer band. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 40-55 kt range and have changed little since the past advisory. In addition, a ship just north of the center just reported 47-kt winds and a pressure of 998.6 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Earlier scatterometer data showed a trough extending from near the center of Beta to just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, which may be a result of the cyclone's circulation interacting with an old cold front over the northern Gulf. Beta has been nearly stationary since the last advisory, with the center perhaps making a small loop. The guidance is in good agreement that a slow westward to west-northwestward motion should start tonight as a mid-level ridge develops north of the cyclone. A slightly faster west-northwestward motion should then occur through 72 h, bringing the center of Beta near or over the Texas coast in about 60 h. After landfall, a mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. Despite the current lack of movement, the latest track guidance is a little faster to bring the storm to the coast of Texas with the ECMWF forecasting landfall by 12Z Monday. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast, but is a little slower than the various consensus models. There remain a lot of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models still suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside much before landfall. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may be getting entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and several of the models now forecast Beta not to strengthen at all as it approaches Texas. Because the sea surface temperatures are warm and the shear is not prohibitively strong, the intensity forecast, while reduced from the earlier forecast, will show slow strengthening to a peak intensity of 60 kt before landfall. This forecast remains above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed tonight or on Sunday. While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane are decreasing, a Hurricane Warning could still be issued for portions of the Texas coast tonight depending on later intensity trends and forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially in coastal areas where tide levels are above normal. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast by Sunday night within the tropical storm warning area, with hurricane-force winds possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-19 23:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 the center of Beta was located near 26.6, -92.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192100 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 92.4W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for Port Mansfield, Texas to Baffin Bay, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for * Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta has been nearly stationary for the past several hours. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A ship near the center of Beta recently reported winds of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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