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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-09-20 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 200850 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 21 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 2(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) CAMERON LA 34 18 10(28) 6(34) 2(36) 3(39) 3(42) 1(43) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 6(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 19 22(41) 15(56) 4(60) 2(62) 1(63) 1(64) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 1 7( 8) 14(22) 12(34) 5(39) 1(40) 1(41) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) FREEPORT TX 34 4 25(29) 22(51) 6(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 39 34(73) 9(82) 1(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 17(18) 15(33) 2(35) 2(37) X(37) 1(38) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 5 13(18) 9(27) 5(32) 4(36) 2(38) 1(39) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 9 26(35) 25(60) 6(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 3(23) X(23) 1(24) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 6 21(27) 23(50) 7(57) 6(63) 1(64) X(64) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 6(22) X(22) 1(23) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 6 16(22) 10(32) 3(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

2020-09-20 07:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 05:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 03:33:26 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

2020-09-20 07:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BETA STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD TEXAS LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Beta was located near 26.9, -92.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 10A

2020-09-20 07:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200539 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD TEXAS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 92.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta has been meandering for the past several hours. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin later today, followed by a slow northwest to north motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and likely move inland late Monday or early Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Corpus Christi Bay, Baffin Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the central Louisiana coast this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas, with 3 to 7 inches spreading northward into the Mid-South mid next week. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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