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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190257 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-18 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5. The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 182053 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 10(31) 8(39) 3(42) 3(45) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 7(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 6(29) 5(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 5(18) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) 5(28) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 14(54) 4(58) 3(61) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 5(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 21(37) 7(44) 2(46) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 25(43) 6(49) 3(52) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 3(18) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 7(35) 4(39) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 8(34) 4(38) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 20(63) 5(68) 2(70) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 3(34) 2(36) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) 3(28) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 10(31) 3(34) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 9(30) 4(34) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 10(45) 2(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 the center of Beta was located near 24.3, -93.1 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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