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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-19 11:04:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190904 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected Storm Surge values in Hazards section ...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 92.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX to Cameron, LA, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 92.5 West. Beta is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin late today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast late Sunday. RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of significant rainfall and flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-19 10:57:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:57:44 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-19 10:57:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:57:44 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-19 10:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:54:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:54:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-19 10:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm is still quite asymmetric due to southwesterly wind shear with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds on the north side of the circulation. In addition, the latest Dvorak classifications are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity of 50 kt, based on the earlier aircraft data, is a little above the satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beta again later this morning, and the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the intensity and structure of the storm. Beta is moving northward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/7 kt. The shortwave trough that has been causing the north to northeastward motion during the past day or so is moving away and a weak mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm soon. This change in the steering pattern should cause Beta to turn westward and slow down later today and then move generally westward to northwestward through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. This motion should take Beta toward the Texas coast by Monday. Around the time Beta is forecast to be near the Texas coastline, the ridge is expected to retreat as another shortwave trough approaches, which should cause the storm to slow down even more and gradually turn to the northeast near the Texas coast by the middle of next week. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. As mentioned above, the tropical storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear, but the upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for strengthening later today. Although the shear is expected to lessen, water vapor images show a swath of dry air approaching the storm from the west. Based on these mixed environmental conditions, slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Beta is forecast to reach hurricane intensity in about 36 hours. Beyond a few days, the models suggest that there could be another increase in southwesterly shear, which in combination with land interaction should cause some weakening. Of course, the rate of weakening will depend on whether Beta is inland or offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 26.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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