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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-10-28 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280839 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Scatterometer data from several hours ago indicated that the disturbance consists of a broad circulation with a 100-150 n mi wide area of light winds (less than 10 kt) and an equally as large radius of maximum winds. The system still does not appear to have a well-defined center of circulation, and in fact, the ASCAT data also showed that the maximum winds are down to about 30 kt. The associated deep convection is rather disorganized but has been increasing in coverage near the estimated center during the past few hours. While the exact center is difficult to locate, the disturbance's circulation appears to be moving just east of due north, or 010/9 kt. The disturbance is beginning to accelerate in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern three-quarters of the United States, and this pattern is expected to cause the system to turn northeastward and accelerate further during the next couple of days. Although the track models are in agreement on this general scenario, the overall guidance envelope has shifted a little westward, most likely as a result of a repositioning of the disturbance's current location. The new NHC forecast has therefore been nudged westward as well, lying closest to HCCA and TVCA models through 36 hours. The disturbance is currently located in its best environment shear-wise, but the system's broad and elongated structure is likely delaying intensification. Although the shear will be increasing, it should remain low enough for the next 12-18 hours to support some strengthening if the circulation can tighten up. In addition, upper-level divergence is expected to increase, which should also support some strengthening. Since the disturbance has such a broad circulation, the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity trends of the GFS and is not too different from the previous advisory. The system is now expected to merge with a cold front and be extratropical by 48 hours and then dissipate by 72 hours. Even though the track forecast has shifted a little closer to South Florida and the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are expected to be well to the east and southeast of the center over the Atlantic waters and the Bahamas. Therefore, tropical storm watches or warnings do not appear necessary for Florida at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.6N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/0600Z 24.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 34.2N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)

2017-10-28 10:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Eighteen was located near 19.6, -84.2 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 3

2017-10-28 10:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280838 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 84.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 84.2 West. The system is moving faster toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). An additional acceleration toward the north-northeast and northeast is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-10-28 10:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280838 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 84.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 84.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.9N 80.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 34.2N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 84.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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