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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-10-27 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 272044 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number potential speed wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

2017-10-27 22:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272041 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 84.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 79.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 84.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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