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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170234 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 125.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERIVCE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Tropical Depression Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the previous and is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Summary for Tropical Depression Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 23.0, -124.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Karina Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karina Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 124.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karina was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 124.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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