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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Graphics
2020-09-17 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:39:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:39:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-17 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170237 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has lacked deep convection for sufficiently long to be deemed a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. Satellite imagery shows a well-developed low cloud swirl that is estimated to be producing winds to 30 kt, primarily based on an earlier ASCAT pass. Karina is moving northwestward at 8 mph, and although a turn toward the west is expected the next day or so, it will remain over 23C waters. This will prevent the redevelopment of significant convection, and the cyclone is expected to gradually spin down until it becomes a trough and dissipates in a couple days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-17 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 23.3, -125.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 125.0W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 125.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion is expected on Thursday and Friday, with little change in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the remnant low will likely dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 156 FOPZ11 KNHC 170234 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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