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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward motion is expected toward the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 10:25:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:25:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:25:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-16 10:23:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160823 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25 C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate within a few days. Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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