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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140847 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours, possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection. This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a northward shift of the guidance at that time. While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water. Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-14 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA JOGS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Karina was located near 17.9, -118.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140847 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA JOGS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 118.2W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 118.2 West. Karina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140847 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140847 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 25(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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