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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics

2020-09-14 16:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:38:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 16:00:00 GMT

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is still to the south of most of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 50(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)

2020-09-14 16:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KARINA RESUMES ITS NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Karina was located near 18.1, -118.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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