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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 44

2020-09-23 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230236 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday, and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has also waned. Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Recent ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt winds so the initial intensity is held at that value. The post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind shear. This should result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the system becomes vertically shallow. The remnant low is expected to turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 34.8N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

2020-09-23 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 230236 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette (AT1/AL172020)

2020-09-23 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME... As of 3:00 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 the center of Paulette was located near 34.8, -20.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 44

2020-09-23 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230236 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 20.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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