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Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2018-07-02 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020234 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind cyclone

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-07-02 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020234 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 125.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 125.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.9N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 125.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EMILIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast cyclone

 
 

Tropical Depression Emilia Graphics

2018-07-01 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 20:34:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Jul 2018 21:25:29 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-07-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving into a drier and more stable airmass. As a result, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-07-01 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

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