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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-30 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is even more separated from the main convection than earlier today, while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated. This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of cooler waters. Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt. The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-30 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 the center of Emilia was located near 16.8, -117.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Emilia Public Advisory Number 10
2018-06-30 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 ...EMILIA FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 117.8W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 117.8 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening over cooler waters is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-06-30 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-06-30 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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