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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-14 19:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 17:40:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:28:23 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-14 19:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Helene was located near 33.8, -37.1 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 29A
2018-09-14 19:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 723 WTNT33 KNHC 141739 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 37.1W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 37.1 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast Saturday followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected over the weekend as Helene makes the transition to a post-tropical extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-09-14 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 774 WTNT43 KNHC 141441 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Conventional satellite imagery and a 1147 UTC METOP-B AMSU microwave image show a deep convective curved band wrapping around the surface circulation in the west semicircle. Additionally, a recent 1148 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates that Helene is a little stronger than earlier estimated. The data showed a number of 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, Helene is still classified as a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity is bumped up to 60 kt for this advisory. The large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate little change in strength during the next 36 hours or so. After that time, some gradual weakening is forecast as Helene completes extratropical transition while passing just to the north of the Azores Islands. The ECMWF, UKMET, and the CMC all show Helene absorbed by a larger baroclinic system just beyond the 72 hour period, as the cyclone moves over Ireland and the United Kingdom. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/20 kt, within the deep-layer southerly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric trough to the west. A north-northeast to northeast turn is expected over the weekend as the cyclone quickly moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous track forecast was made through 48 hours. The NHC official forecast is based primarily on the TVCN multi-model consensus. An orange wind warning is in effect for the Azores, equivalent to a tropical storm warning. Tropical Storm conditions with gusty winds and heavy rains are likely over the weekend as Helene passes the islands, regardless of whether the cyclone is a tropical storm or post-tropical. Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 35.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 38.4N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 40.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 42.7N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1200Z 47.4N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-09-14 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 094 FONT13 KNHC 141441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 1 34(35) 43(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 3( 3) 32(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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