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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-09-13 16:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 298 WTNT23 KNHC 131436 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 37.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 37.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.2N 37.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.8N 36.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 35.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.2N 33.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N 26.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 51.5N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-13 10:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 08:50:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:28:27 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-13 10:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 082 WTNT43 KNHC 130848 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Helene's surface circulation has become fully exposed this morning with the center decoupled about 110 miles south of edge of the remaining deep convection. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased and support lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt. Statistical and global model guidance show the southwesterly shear increasing significantly in 12 hours or so, however, the 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures should govern the weakening trend a little. In 3 days, Helene is forecast to move over much cooler waters while the cyclone becomes embedded in the hostile mid-latitude upper-level westerlies. Subsequently, further weakening is expected at a faster pace. By day 4, the large-scale models all show Helene acquiring extratropical cyclone characteristics as it moves toward Ireland and the United Kingdom. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is based primarily on the NOAA-HCCA and the IVCN consensus models. Helene is still moving northward, or 355/12 kt, within the deep-layer southerly flow produced by an amplifying mid-Atlantic trough to the west of the cyclone. In 48 hours, Helene is forecast to turn north-northeastward followed by a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward motion at the 72 hour period. The guidance suite remains tightly clustered through day 4, with some slight spread at day 5, and indicates that Helene will pass near the Azores in about 3 days. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next few days. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and lies close to the TVCN multi-model consensus through the entire forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 23.5N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.7N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 29.1N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 32.5N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 35.8N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 40.7N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 44.6N 19.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0600Z 51.1N 10.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-09-13 10:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 293 FONT13 KNHC 130847 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 1(59) X(59) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-13 10:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Helene was located near 23.5, -37.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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