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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 24

2018-09-13 10:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 329 WTNT33 KNHC 130847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HELENE WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 37.3W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM SSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 37.3 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 24

2018-09-13 10:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 328 WTNT23 KNHC 130847 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 37.3W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 37.3W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.7N 37.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 36.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 36.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.7N 28.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 44.6N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 51.1N 10.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Helene Graphics

2018-09-13 04:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 02:39:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 02:39:54 GMT

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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 23

2018-09-13 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 935 WTNT43 KNHC 130238 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 Helene's surface circulation has become rather difficult to find this evening in shortwave and enhanced infrared satellite imagery. Based on an earlier SSMI/S microwave pass, the center was removed well to the south of the convective mass. A blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as a SATCON analysis of 72 kt, yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory. Global models and the ECMWF/GFS Decay SHIPS models show the southwesterly shear increasing significantly in 24 hours, however, the warm sea surface temperatures are expected to limit the weakening trend some. Beyond the 48 hour period, Helene is expected to traverse cooler waters while the harsh upper wind environment persists. Therefore, additional weakening is forecast at a faster rate. Toward the end of the period, the global models, as well as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution analysis and forecast product, show Helene transitioning to a post-tropical extratropical cyclone as it moves toward Ireland and the United Kingdom. Helene is estimated to be moving northward, or 350/11 kt, within the mid-tropospheric southerly flow produced by an amplifying deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. At the 48 hour period, the cyclone should turn to the north-northeast followed by a northeastward turn with an increase in forward motion toward the end of the forecast period. The large-scale models, and the HWRF hurricane model, are clustered fairly close together and indicate that Helene will pass near the Azores in about 72 hours. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next several days. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is nudged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 22.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.4N 37.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 30.7N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 34.3N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 40.1N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 43.4N 22.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 48.7N 12.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2018-09-13 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 573 FONT13 KNHC 130237 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 3(61) X(61) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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